On 25 January, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) drew up its assessment of the year 2021 for air travel worldwide. Traffic actually picked up between 2020 and 2021. IATA notes that passenger demandexpressed in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), decreased by 58.4 % compared to 2019. But it fell by 65.8% between 2019 and 2020. December also saw a strong recovery, with the number of international passengers (RPK) up by 182.8% compared with December 2020. This increase even peaked at 228% for Europe!
IATA prefers to refer to the figures for 2019, when traffic levels are considered normal. 2019 is in fact the last pre-Covid year. International passenger demand in 2021 remained 75.5 % below 2019 levels.. Capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, fell by 65.3 %. The load factor fell by 24 points to 58.0 %.
An omicron effect at the end of the year
However, domestic demand held up better last year. Compared with 2019, it fell by 'only' 28.2% with capacity down 19.2 %. The load factor fell by 9.3 points to 74.3 %. IATA notes a continued improvement in traffic levels. In December 2021, total passenger traffic in RPK was only 45.1 % lower than in the same month of 2019, with capacity down 37.6 % on December 2019.
However, IATA has recorded a drop in ticket sales since November as the omicron variant takes off. The number of tickets purchased for future air travel thus represented only 45% of the 2019 level during the first fortnight of January. This figure had reached 56% in November. Without omicron, IATA estimated that traffic in December should have been only 43.5% lower than in 2019.
"Overall travel demand has strengthened in 2021. This trend continued in December despite travel restrictions due to omicron. This speaks volumes about passengers' strong confidence and desire to travel. The challenge for 2022 is to strengthen this trust by standardising travel.. While international travel is still far from normal in many parts of the world, the momentum is moving in the right direction. Recently, France, the UK and Switzerland announced a significant relaxation of their measures. We hope that other countries will follow their example.. Particularly in Asia, where several key markets remain virtually isolated", said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA.
In detail by region, IATA notes that Africa and the Americas have been the most resilient in terms of international traffic in 2021, while the Asia-Pacific region has remained the most affected. Europe occupies a median position.
Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific airlines' international traffic plunged 93.2% in 2021 compared to 2019. In December 2021, it was still 87.5 % lower than in December 2019. Capacity for the year as a whole fell by 84.9 % compared with 2019. The load factor fell by 44.3 points to 36.5 %.
Middle East
Surprisingly, the Middle East was the second region of the world most affected by the fall in traffic. Annual airline passenger volumes were 71.6 % lower than in 2019.. Annual capacity fell by 57.7 % and the load factor dropped 25.1 points to 51.1 %. However, the recovery at the end of the year was solid. In December, passenger traffic in RPK was only 51.2 % below 2019.
Europe
European carriers have seen their traffic fall by 67.6 % in 2021 compared with 2019. Available capacity fell by 57.4 % and load factor decreased by 20.6 percentage points to 65.0 %. For the month of December, traffic slipped by 41.5 % compared with December 2019, an improvement on the year-on-year decline of 43.5 % recorded in November.
Americas
North American airline traffic for the year as a whole fell by 65.6 % compared with 2019. Capacity fell by 52.0 %. The load factor plunged 23.8 points to 60.2 %. Demand in December was 41.7 % lower than in the same month of 2019.
Latin American airlines recorded a 66.9 % drop in traffic compared with 2019.. Capacity was down by 62.2 %. The load factor was 72.6%. This represented a fall of 10.2 points compared to 2019. But this is still the highest occupancy rate in the industry.. Traffic fell by 40.4 % for the month of December compared with December 2019.
Africa
International traffic on African airlines fell by 65.2 % last year compared with 2019. It is the best performance in the world. Capacity fell by 56.7 %. At the same time, load factor reached 57.3%, a decline of 14.1 points. However, the performance of African airlines deteriorated towards the end of the year. Demand for the month of December was 60.5 % lower than in 2019. This was due to the impact of government restrictions on travel in response to omicron.
However, IATA remains relatively optimistic. The association believes that the omicron variant should have a relatively limited impact. IATA believes that the recovery should be perceptible from March onwards... if no new variant comes along to upset his prognosis!
