Have the Cassandras cried out louder than the rest? After the vote on 23 June confirming the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, many analysts predicted a drop in air traffic to the country due to the expected economic uncertainties and a wave of panic among investors.
ForwardKeys, a consultancy firm working on booking aggregates collected from various websites, has found the opposite to be true. This company has monitored thebookings before and after 24 June. According to their analysis, bookings on international routes fell by 2.8% between 27 May and 23 June. However, from 24 June to 21 July, ForwardKeys recorded a total of trend reversal with an increase in bookings on international flights to the UK of 4.31TP3Q.
A major factor in this sudden enthusiasm for the UK is the exchange rate of the pound sterling, which has plunged by an average of 12% against the euro and almost 10% against the dollar since the end of May. As a result, flight bookings by Europeans are up by 5% over the period under review, and even by 8.7% for non-EU nationals. In total, between 27 May and 21 July, the number of arrivals compared with bookings rose by 7.1%.
ForwardKeys has also analysed the initial figures for bookings to the UK up to October. And here again, the consultancy firm confirms theupturn in demand. In August, the bookings balance was positive by 3.2%, by 3.3% in September and by 5.3% in October, compared with the pre-Brexit vote situation. The increase in October was particularly strong due to holidays in China and strong demand from that country.
The figures communicated by ForwardKeys are confirmed by the initial results published by certain companies. UK airports in July. They all report an increase in passenger numbers in the month following the Brexit vote.
London Heathrow ended July with traffic up by 2.1%, or more than seven million passengers. The airport recorded an increase of more than 10% from the Middle East, Central Asia and Mexico, and 9% from China. With 4.6 million passengers in July, London Gatwick saw its traffic jump by 6.9%, beating a previous record of 4.6 million. absolute record in its history, while Manchester posted an increase of 10.3%. Once again, traffic at these airports was boosted by long-haul flights: +23% at Gatwick, around 20% at Manchester and even 32% at Birmingham.
