As a key player in health and safety assistance, International SOS is well placed to observe the world's disorders. Its report Risk outlook 2025unveiled at the end of last year, highlighted a fragmented world against a backdrop of growing multipolarity and the increasingly uninhibited use of violence by both states and militias. A planet in a state of permacrisis, shaken by a combination of geopolitical, social, climatic and health-related tensions.
Its 2025 risk map, updated every year, does not show the contrary. " All the signs are that this year will be on a par with 2024.says Beatrix Renaut, Regional Security Manager at International SOS. This is why we have not lowered the security risk levels of any country" . The other way round, Sudan and Lebanon have gone from high to extreme riskThe area near the Israeli-Lebanese border has been at high risk since last summer.
However, these forecasts require constant adaptation to change. An audit planned for Israel at the end of January could lead to a reduction in travel recommendations. Until now, ISOS has advised against all travel to Israel within a ten-kilometre radius of the Lebanese border, the Gaza Strip or Syria. More generally, for the whole country, International SOS still advises evacuating non-essential employees and avoiding all non-strategic travel, while others can continue with safety measures adapted to the context. The others can continue with safety measures adapted to the context.
At the same time, Syria is one of the few countries in the world, along with Iran and North Korea, where International SOS has no presence, developments following the departure of Bashar El Assad opens the door to a return to the region in the medium term, according to Christophe Suptil, Chief Strategy Officer of International SOS: " We are monitoring the situation very closely and remain cautious. There is no immediate change and the country remains at extreme risk. This could change once we have been able to return to the field and carry out an audit of the country and its service providers." .
Elections, risky traps
Without appearing directly on the risk map, 2025 will also be marked by another factor of potential unrest with an election year almost as busy as 2024. Two major elections are scheduled in Africa in particular, in Côte d'Ivoire and Cameroon, and could bring down long-serving presidents Alassane Ouattara and Paul Byia. Other sensitive polls against a backdrop of relations with NATO and Russia, presidential elections are also scheduled in Poland and Moldova.
Alongside the conflicts that are shaking the world, there is another element that is profoundly and increasingly visibly shaking it: the climate, which for the second year has been included in the International SOS risk map through data compiled for the INFORM Climate Change Index, the result of collaboration between the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. " We are unfortunately well placed to observe itsays Philippe Guibert, Medical Director. The alerts we send out for events linked to climate change grew by 80% in 2023 compared with 2022." .
In addition to natural disasters with dramatic consequences, International SOS believes that climate change is often accompanied by a health and safety component in the face of the threat of climate change. vulnerability of certain regionsWhen air pollution or increasingly hot environments can have an impact on the working conditions of employees in the countries most affected.
While the floods in Spain and the recent fires in Los Angeles have shown that the countries to the north of the world are not immune, the countries at greatest risk from climate change are in the inter-tropical regions. These are also areas where countries with the highest health risksThis is due not only to epidemics, but also to difficulties in accessing care or the quality of care. In this context, Sudan has been downgraded to "very high risk", but at the same time, ISOS notes favourable developments in Libya and Côte d'Ivoire". where public health policies are bearing fruit, resulting in a downgraded rating to high" says Dr Philippe Guibert.
More generally, the Medical Director of International SOS is concerned that the resurgence of diseases such as tuberculosis and measles, lower vaccination coverage and questions about access to healthcare, including in France. While Covid is not far in the past, International SOS is on the alert for new pandemics that could appear on the radar, such as the human cases of H5N1 avian influenza that have appeared in the United States, or the development of the Mpox virus.
Pandemics, climate change, global conflicts, but also AI's intrusion into the professional world: the world is not only more fragmented, it's also more anxiety-provoking. In this context, International SOS has added a final filter to its risk map, focusing on mental health. The diagnosis is more unfavourable to countries on the European and American continents. " Stress and burn out affect one and a half million people in France every year. This reality is set to continue" stresses Philippe Guibert. As, unfortunately, are all the other risk factors.
