2020 will have seen the closure of most borders around the world, redistributing traffic flows. From whole swathes of the planet have barricaded. In 2020, the following European travellers will have disappeared off the radar Asia-Pacific and the Americas.
According to theWorld Tourism Organization UNWTO, Asia-Pacific is the continent that has, in fact, experienced the most severe restrictions. International tourism in the region has plummeted by more than 82% over the first ten months of 2020. This compares with a more limited fall in the number of arrivals in Europe and in Americas. It will have reached 69% for the first and 68% for seconds.
According to the UN, international tourism in 2020 will return to a level comparable to that of the previous decade. 1990. Let the disappearance of a billion international arrivals. And tourism revenue losses estimated at 1,100 billion dollars!
Freedom to travel in Europe
The UNWTO-OMT notes that theEurope was the part of the world where freedom of movement was greatest. Particularly within theSchengen areaWith the exception of a few countries. Denmark, Finland and Ireland, for example, maintained extremely strict entry restriction protocols throughout most of the year. The UNWTO nevertheless noted that 91% of European destinations were fully or partially accessible to foreign travellers last November.
This reconfiguration of people's movements across the planet is naturally accompanied by a new trend in the way we travel. geopolitical redrawing. While China, for example, has gained influence in the rest of Asia - with the notable exception of Korea and Japan - Europe, on the other hand, has distanced itself from the Asian giant. In particular, Europe has criticised China for its lack of transparency in the covid crisis and its highly aggressive diplomacy, which is perceived as dangerous.
Transatlantic trade has also suffered a setback. Not only because of the almost total ban on Europeans entering Canada and the United States, but also because of a Trump administration that Europeans have deemed irrational. The outgoing President's administration will not have stopped blowing hot and cold throughout 2020.
So Europeans naturally turned to Europe. The European Union has taken advantage of the pandemic to strengthen its political position. The reopening of the Schengen area in the summer of 2020, the financial aid of 100 billion euros for EU members and the joint purchase of vaccines show that the European economic entity can gain in political weight. The UK's departure from the EU may marginalise it in Europe in the short term, but it also strengthens the EU's cohesion.
In 2021, we can expect these events to continue to have an impact on global economic relations. With the vaccine, the borders within the EU will reopen very quickly. As the members of the European Union have already experienced an initial opening in the summer of 2020, the intra-European trade should be strengthened as a result.
Hopes for travel to the Americas and the Middle East
The arrival of a new administration in United States with the President-elect Joe Biden will result in greater peace of mind and a gradual resumption of traffic flows on the North Atlantic. The Caribbean islands, which are heavily dependent on tourism, have already partially reopened to international travellers.
Exchanges at Middle East, particularly towards the Gulf, are set to pick up rapidly. They are supported by the pragmatism of the region's leaders. They know how much their destinations depend on trade and economic exchanges with the rest of the world. Since the end of last year, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Oman and Qatar have gradually reopened their doors to international travellers.
Visit Asia, the European Union and China finally initialled a major trade agreement at the end of 2020. This should go some way to easing the tensions that will arise in 2020. However, the Asia-Europe relations will continue to be characterised by great uncertainty in 2021. Governments in the Far East are still reluctant to reopen quickly. Some have even seen the pandemic as an opportunity to break a foreign influence they consider harmful to their own populations.
The most blatant example of this hardening was the sealing off of Hong Kong in 2020. The new law on security in the former British territory will weigh heavily on the city's international appeal. If the Europe-Asia link is to regain strength, it will probably take some time.
In general, the UNWTO-OMT table on a solid recovery from the second half of 2021. But it will take time for international travel demand to return to pre-covid levels. The UNWTO gives it two to three years to recover.
