The latest GBTA index (Global Business Travel Association) report on business travel has just been published. And it contains some bad news: that ofan 18-month delay in recovery estimates. The GBTA believes that it will only be in 2026 and not 2024 that the global business travel industry will reach or exceed its 2019 pre-pandemic spending levels1.4 trillion.
At a time when relief measures against the Covid pandemic are multiplying around the world, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions are now holding back the recovery. This is one of the main conclusions of the latest edition of the 2022 GBTA Business Travel Index Outlook - Annual Global Report and Forecast published by the GBTA in partnership with Mastercard. The GBTA study analyses business travel spending and growth in 73 countries and 44 sectors.
"To understand the headwinds that are having an impact on the slowdown in the recovery of global business travel, all you have to do is look at the headlines since the start of 2022. The factors weighing on activity in many sectors around the world are likely to have an impact on the recovery in global business travel until 2025. The predicted outcome is that we will come close, but will not reach or exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2019 until 2026." said Suzanne Neufang, President of the GBTA at the association's annual convention.
Some facts from the latest GBTA study
Total business travel expenditure worldwide to reach $697 billion in 2021This is 5.5 % more than in 2020, at the peak of the pandemic. The GBTA considers 2021 to be a mediocre year, since it was almost as bad as 2020 for the global business travel sector. The sector's volume surplus was only around 36 billion dollars. This compares with volume losses of $770 billion in 2020.
By 2022, global spending on business travel is expected to grow by 34 % compared with 2021 to reach 933 billion dollarsor 65 % at pre-pandemic level.
At the start of the year, the recovery in business travel in 2022 depended on an improvement in four factors: vaccination on a global scale, national policies to open up borders, business traveller sentiment and corporate travel management policy.
From now on macroeconomic factors that are driving the recovery: persistent inflation, high energy prices, serious supply chain difficulties and labour shortages. The significant economic slowdown and the blockages in Chinathe major regional impacts of the war in Ukraine add further stresses. Just like new sustainability considerations that are emerging in corporate travel policies.
As a result, the GBTA predicts that the global business travel sector will almost reach its pre-pandemic level in 2025, à 1.39 trillion dollars. Finally, this level was clearly exceeded in 2026with an estimated 1.47 trillion dollars.
Continental differences in the recovery
Global business travel expenditure expected to grow by 33.8 % in 2022 but the recovery will vary from continent to continent. North America and Western Europe should see the strongest recoveries in volume terms in the coming years. The GBTA predicts average annual increases of 23.4 % for North America (to $363.7 billion) and 16.9 % for Western Europe (to $323.9 billion) between now and 2026.
After being in the lead due to the upturn in domestic travel in China, Asia-Pacific lags behind in 2022China's "zero covid" policy has led to large-scale blockades. The reopening of the other major business destinations in the region remains slow. The GBTA estimates that by the end of 2022, the volume of spending in the business sector will correspond to 66% of its pre-Covid levels. This represents an increase of 16.5 % (to $407.1 billion) but only 5.6 % for China (to $286.9 billion). In Latin AmericaGBTA estimates growth in expenditure in the sector at 55% for this year. This would return the region to 83% of pre-pandemic volumes.
In July 2022, the GBTA had already surveyed over 400 frequent business travellers and 44 business travel budget decision-makers in four regions of the world.The general feeling was positive, while acknowledging a more difficult context. More than three quarters of business travellers said they expected to travel more or much more. for work more or much more in 2023 than in 2022.
Finally, 73% of business travellers and 38 of the 44 global travel budget decision-makers agree that inflation/price rises will have an impact on travel volumes.
