This is the question on the minds of travel and MICE buyers in general, and all the more so over the last few years when prices have soared: when will there be a lull in prices? The report 2025 Global Business Travel Forecast should provide some answers. And perhaps even an ounce of serenity...
The study unveiled at the end of September by the GBTA and CWT is betting on stabilising the market. As the CEO of the business travel agency explains: " While recent years have seen significant volatility in travel costs, our latest data suggests that a period of relative stability is on the horizon. ". Patrick Andersen is reassuring, and continues: " Companies can expect to navigate through a a more predictable pricing environment until 2024 and 2025, enabling them to plan their budgets more effectively and manage their costs better. However, price regularity is fragile. Attention to geopolitical factors, inflationary pressures and CSR concerns remains essential. ". Suzanne Neufang also urges caution. The CEO of the GBTA notes: " The study shows that while a more stable period for travel costs is likely, companies must remain vigilant to changing price dynamics influenced by global trends. The coming years will require a strategic approach that reconciles cost management with sustainability, innovation and responsiveness to market changes. At GBTA, our aim is to give travel buyers and suppliers the knowledge they need to effectively adapt their strategies in this changing landscape. ".
With regard to the aerialand more specifically the EMEAThe Global Business Travel Forecast points out that the region had the most expensive average ticket in 2023. The authors of the report estimate that since then, the increase has reached 1.5% in 2024, and should slow down - slightly - in 2025 (1.4%). In the other regions, the study forecasts a rate increase of 1.5% in Asia Pacific, 1.6% in Latin America, and only 0.5% in North America.
In thehotelsThe report points to a slowdown in price increases, following the post-Covid recovery years, and to a decline in demand for leisure breaks. However, the authors note that " fare increases are likely to be higher in major cities that attract both business and leisure visitors ". In the EMEAIn 2024 and 2025, prices are expected to rise by 1.9%. This represents a real lull after the surge in prices pointed out by the report in 2023 (6.8 %, at an average of $157). In North America, the Global Business Travel Forecast estimates an increase of 2.81 % this year, rising to 2.21 % in 2025, when the average overnight stay will be 187 $. Asia-Pacific should see a similar increase next year (2.2% to 139 $). As for Latin America, GBTA and CWT are still seeing a surge in hotel rates: +9.7% in 2024, and +7.8% in 2025.
Another aspect of business travel deciphered by the study: the car rental. A sector in which tariff growth seems to have returned to cruising speed: +2.5% for the years 2024 and 2025, with an average tariff expected to reach 46.50$ next year. On the EMEA market, however, the slowdown is more marked. Prices are expected to fall from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.1% in 2025, and even 0.9% next year. Of course, the continuing rise of rail and public transport is no stranger to this trend.
What about Meeting & events, which the Kactus barometer recently deciphered on a market-wide scale at theIFTM 2024 ? Overall, the GBTA and CWT report "extremely strong" demand, with the post-Covid catch-up effect continuing worldwide. Against a backdrop of staff shortages, wage inflation and rising catering costs, rates are still on the rise, according to the report. The average cost per day per participant is expected to reach 162 $ this year, compared with 155 $ in 2023. And GBTA-CWT forecasts predict 169 $ in 2025.
All these forecasts are subject to change, however, in an international context that remains uncertain. Among the major issues to watch out for in the coming months, GBTA and CWT cite ever-increasing geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Middle East), inflationary pressure and, of course, environmental issues. With regard to the latter, the report highlights the costs incurred by responsible approaches. " Whether it's sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)emissions, carbon offsets or investments in renewable energies. electric vehiclesThe shift to a greener economy on a global scale, whether through net zero commitments, investor pressure or environmental regulatory requirements, is driving new costs for business travel. These costs will increasingly be passed on to the buyer. "summarise the authors of the report. There is no doubt that this issue will have been debated at Climate Week NYC, an event in which the Group is currently taking part. GBTA Foundation. IHG took the opportunity to bring together a number of major players in the business travel industry, including IDEO, Accenture, American Express Global Business Travel, Delta Air Lines and Hertz. This was an opportunity to reflect together on the difficult balance between economic imperatives and environmental responsibility in business travel.
