For several years, some hoteliers in the US have downplayed the impact of Airbnb-style short-term rentals on their bottom line. But a new report from CBRE Research suggests that this alternative accommodation offer and the growth in the hotel offer are leaving the American hotel industry bereft. Hotel occupancy rates are falling and rates are stagnating, even during periods of high demand such as trade fairs and conferences. " In most markets where growth in short-term rental supply is high, the percentage increase in the average daily price is now lower than the rate of inflation and/or recent historical trends. "analyses the CBRE Research report on short-term lettings. A Maturing U.S. Market & Its Impact on Traditional Hotels" .
Because of the flexibility of short-term rentals, which can very quickly flood a market during major events or in the high season, then disappear just as quickly from the market in the low season, hoteliers have less and less control over setting their rates, according to the report. Especially as supply in the flat rental sector has surged. Between 2015 and 2019, short-term rentals increased by 851,000 rooms and there are plans for 105,000 more by 2020. Short-term rentals now account for more than 10% of hotel capacity themselves. That's more than 1.5 million rooms in the short-stay rental segment, seven times more than in 2014. According to the CBR study, the supply of short-stay rentals in fourteen US cities exceeds 10%, Los Angeles with the highest rate at 22.3%, followed by Miami to 19.2% and Austin at 18%. Detroit has the lowest rate with only 3.1% of room supply in short-stay rentals.
This trend is also confirmed by the latest analysis by STR, a consultancy specialising in the development of supply and demand in the US hotel industry. For the first time since 2009, the US hotel industry is expected to experience a year of stagnation of revenue per available room (RevPAR), according to the first forecasts for 2020 from STR and Tourism Economics. The Average Daily Rate (ADR) continues to rise, but at a much lower rate than inflation, and has done so for six consecutive quarters. As a result, the US hotel industry has adjusted to forecasts of flat or falling rates. STR reported that in 2019, average daily rates in the US reached $131.21, while RevPAR stood at $86.76.
" 2019 was the industry's worst year since the recession in terms of RevPAR growth, which rose a mediocre 0.9 % after nine years of 3.2% increases "explains Amanda Hite, President of STR. " The good news, of course, is that we've had a very good year. another record year for demand. We expect growth to slow further this year before rising slightly in 2021. ". In its forecasts for the US hotel industry published last November, STR predicted an increase in RevPAR of 0.5 % in 2020 and 0.7 % in 2021. All segments are likely to see falling occupancy rates in 2020The biggest increase will be in the top-of-the-range (4-star) hotel segment. Luxury chains, on the other hand, are expected to post the strongest growth in both ADR (+1.2 1Q3Q) and RevPAR (+0.9 1Q3Q).
