The various scenarios - a soft Brexit, a hard Brexit or a no-deal exit from the EU - will all have a negative impact on Ireland, according to the local government's economic analyses. The country is, in fact, more exposed than any other, with 15% of its trade being with the UK. And yet, the hotel industry in Ireland has not never looked so goodincluding Dublin. This is due firstly to an incredible boom in international visitor arrivals, but also to a positive effect of Brexit, namely the transfer of activities within the EU, which is generating a real investment boom in the Irish capital. This, in turn, is benefiting the hotel industry.
According to the 'Brexit Tracker' barometer by EYGM - formerly Ernst & Young - the "Brexodusor the exodus of companies from the UK to the European Union, as it is ironically called in financial circles, is working in Dublin's favour. The Irish capital is the number one location for financial services companies looking to leave the UK. According to EY, 27 groups have committed to transferring their staff or operations since the June 2016 referendum. This is ahead of Frankfurt, Luxembourg and Paris.
Among the big names in finance that have relocated or will be relocating are go to relocate to DublinThese include the British bank Barclays, as well as Bank of America Merrill Lynch, part of Morgan Stanley, XL Insurance and Royal London Insurance. The Central Bank of Ireland has indicated that around a hundred firms have applied for a licence to set up in the country.
A godsend, then, particularly for four- and five-star hotels. Especially as the number of foreign visitors spending at least one night in Ireland continues to rise, with 10.6 million arrivals in 2018, the eighth consecutive year of growth. Western Europe represents the largest market, generating 36% of all trips, just ahead of the UK, at 35%.
Dublin is naturally the country's main destinationwith the largest number of rooms. Of the 58,800 rooms in Ireland in 2018, 19,600 are located in the capital, representing a third of the total supply. But the city's weight could grow even further in the future.
According to a recent study by Horwath HTL, the Dublin hotel market saw an increase of over 1,100 new rooms in 2018, representing a 5.7 % increase in capacity. This includes the biggest annual increase in supply in Dublin in over 10 years. And this trend will continue in 2019. Horwath HTL estimates the additional supply of hotel rooms at around 1,600.
Recently opened are the Clayton Hotel Charlemont (November 2018, 189 rooms), followed by an Aloft (June 2019, 202 rooms), the latter in the Liberties district, which houses many technology companies as well as tourist attractions such as Saint Patrick's Cathedral and the Guinness Storehouse. By the end of the year, other brands such as Marlin (July, 300 rooms) and Hyatt Centric are expected to open in Dublin for the first time, with a 234-room hotel.
At the same time, the Shelbourne Hotel, probably Dublin's most prestigious establishment, has completed a renovation programme that has spanned several years. Opened 195 years ago and managed by the Marriott group, it has just inaugurated several new public areas and bars and is taking the opportunity to change its name from Renaissance to the collection of top-of-the-range hotels Autograph.
Other projects are in the pipeline. A Hard Rock Hotel is due to open in 2020. The South African chain Red Carnation has also just acquired a former Dublin tax centre built around 1910, which it will transform into a five-star boutique hotel. The Dublin market is particularly attractive for hoteliers given its results. Horwath HTL reports that in 2018, the average room rate, at €145, grew by 6.5% compared to 2017, reaching a RevPAR (revenue per available room) of €122, up 7.3%. This figure puts Dublin in seventh place in Europe, ahead of Copenhagen and Barcelona. In terms of occupancy, the rate of 84% puts Dublin in first place among European cities. For 145 nights in 2018, hotels even exceeded 90% occupancy! This should continue to drive up prices.
