The coming to power of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Conservative party in Germany had raised many hopes in aviation circles. The new government had indeed promised to restore aviation to its natural place in the German ecosystem. Admittedly, some half-hearted measures have been taken by the new government, such as freezing aviation taxes and cancelling a further increase in these taxes scheduled for the spring. However, these measures are proving to be insufficient.
Indeed, the growth of German air capacity will be practically at a standstill this winter. According to a new analysis by the'According to the German Aviation Association (BDL), airlines will offer around 129 million seats on routes to, from and within Germany between August 2026 and January 2027. This is just 1% more than in the same period a year earlier and barely 92% of the level recorded before the pandemic, between August 2019 and January 2020.
The contrast with the rest of Europe is striking. At European level, supply is expected to rise by 5% year-on-year and stand 11% above its 2019 level. Low-cost carriers are, in fact, the driving force behind this growth. They are recording growth of 8% this winter season and account for a market share of 41% of total capacity. Their capacity is, in fact, 33% higher than it was in 2019.
In fact, it is the traditional airlines – specifically those most frequently used by business travellers – that are posting lacklustre results. Their capacity across Europe has fallen by 4% year-on-year, according to the BDL. Their capacity is thus down by 21% compared with 2019. Non-European airlines are also reducing their capacity by 2% this winter, whilst non-European low-cost carriers are increasing theirs by 5%.
The BDL blames high fuel costs and the burden of government-imposed costs in Germany to explain this trend. According to the organisation, this situation is pushing legacy airlines to reduce their presence in the country. Or at least not to launch any new flights. Proof of this is that American Airlines and United have just announced the launch of a dozen new routes in Europe next spring. None of them now involve Germany, despite the country's obvious economic potential.
Two geographical sectors are showing resilience: European short- and medium-haul routes, and intercontinental routes. The former is seeing its seat capacity increase by 2% this winter, reaching 98% of the 2019 capacity. The latter, with 20.8 million seats, reached 97% of the 2019 offer.
But here, too, the picture is more nuanced. Europe is being driven by growth in southern destinations (+16% compared with 2019), whilst capacity in Western Europe is down by 22% compared with 2019. Austria and Switzerland have even seen a decline of 28% compared with pre-COVID levels. As for long-haul routes, whilst North America and Asia are down slightly (by -4% and -3% respectively compared with 2019), Latin America has lost 17% of its capacity since the pandemic began. Only North Africa and the Levant have posted spectacular growth: +11% and 1,42% compared with pre-pandemic levels.
Finally, it should be noted that Frankfurt and Munich remain below their pre-pandemic levels, at 89% and 86% respectively of their 2019 capacity. Seat capacity this winter is down by 1% compared with last year. Among the major German airports handling over 10 million passengers, only Cologne/Bonn and Düsseldorf are recording a significant increase in seat capacity this winter, up by +12% and +4% respectively. By contrast, Stuttgart is the big loser, with a 7% drop in capacity this winter.
German flight capacity by destination
| Traffic from/to | Millions of seats | Share of total traffic | Growth vs previous period | Change compared to the August 2019–January 2020 period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 129,0 | - | 1% | 92% |
| Domestic | 8,0 | 6% | -7% | 47% |
| decentralised ventilation unit | 1,0 | 1% | 1% | 20% |
| Domestic connections via hubs | 7,0 | 5% | -8% | 59% |
| Short and medium-haul | 100,2 | 78% | 2% | 98% |
| Northern Europe | 5,7 | 4% | 1% | 84% |
| North Africa/Levant | 6,0 | 5% | 11% | 142% |
| Switzerland/Austria | 7,3 | 6% | -2% | 72% |
| Eastern/South-Eastern Europe | 15,3 | 12% | 2% | 88% |
| Western Europe | 16,3 | 13% | -5% | 78% |
| Southern Europe | 49,6 | 38% | 5% | 116% |
| Long-haul | 20,8 | 16% | 0% | 97% |
| Latin America | 1,1 | 1% | 11% | 83% |
| Africa | 1,4 | 1% | 12% | 106% |
| Middle East / Central Asia | 4,5 | 3% | -9% | 100% |
| Asia | 5,7 | 4% | 4% | 97% |
| North America | 8,1 | 6% | 0% | 96% |
Comparison of capacity from August 2026 to January 2027 with that of the reference period from August 2019 to January 2020.
