"Passenger demand is losing momentum as terrorism and economic uncertainty impact traffic" is the title of the report published on 4 August by the International Air Transport Association. According to the statistics released on this occasion by IATA, the trend is still upwards, with demand in June up by 5.2 % compared with June 2015. "However, in seasonally adjusted terms, the upward trend in traffic has eased since January", the international association points out, pointing in particular to the fall in the seat load factor (-0.3 points to 80.7 %).
According to IATA, several factors explain this slowdown: "Demand in the travel industry continues to grow, but at a slower pace. The fragile and uncertain economic context, political upheaval and a wave of terrorist attacks are all factors contributing to the weakening of the demand environment," analyses Tony Tyler, IATA's Director General and CEO.
European airlines are logically suffering the consequences of the terrorist attacks, posting the lowest increase by region in international passengers (+2.1 %, compared with 8.8% in Latin America). The impact will also be felt in Asia, where the slowdown in growth seen this summer "could (...) indicate that Asian passengers are giving up travel because of terrorism in Europe", notes IATA.
The International Air Transport Association is relatively pessimistic for the European market: "While demand tends to recover reasonably quickly after such events, the repetitive nature of the attacks could have more lasting consequences", warns the press release.
Tony Tyler concludes: "It is too early to know whether the recent terrorist attacks will have any long-term negative impact on demand, or what the impact of Brexit and events in Turkey will be. But it is vital that governments recognise and support aviation's ability to contribute to the world's economic well-being and to greater understanding across cultural and political boundaries.
