Sébastien BazinCEO ofAccor, notes a 25% drop in bookings to the United States this summer in an interview with Bloomberg. Last weekend it was announced that resignation of the co-founder ofAirbnb Joe Gebbia. After Musk joined Elon Musk's team at DOGE, a powerful movement to boycott his company took shape, which Airbnb now hopes to contain following the departure of its creator. Faced with the suspicion of American immigration services towards foreign visitors, many countries have issued negative opinions, urging their citizens to exercise caution when travelling to the United States.
That was all it took to give birth to a widespread rejection of the United States by consumers. It is gaining momentum following the sensational announcement by Donald Trump on the new customs duties. According to a survey conducted at the beginning of February by the British government, the proportion of Europeans with a favourable opinion of the United States has fallen below 50% everywhere. With the worst results recorded in Denmark (20% of favourable opinions), Germany (32%) and France (34%). All these factors will have an impact on business travel.
Proof with 9
According to Tourism Economicsexperts linked to Oxford University who analyse travel movements and trends, Donald Trump's policies and statements have caused a shift in negative sentiment towards the United States among international travellers.
Tourism Economics now forecasts a sharp fall in international travel to the United States until the end of Trump's second term in officeif there is no change in policy. 2025 should even see the sharpest fall.
In February, Tourism Economics had already predicted a 5.1% decline in international arrivals in the US, and a 0.8% drop in hotel demand. This compares with a previous estimate of 8.8% growth in arrivals and 1.1% growth in hotel demand.
The latest forecasts published following the announcement of new customs duties report a further deterioration. Tourism Economics now estimates 9.4% decline in international visitor arrivals. It is in fact conditional on the fall in Canadian arrivals, estimated at -20.2%. This fall should lead to a 5% drop in spending by international visitors in the United States. The equivalent of -9 billion dollars. Including -2.4 billion for the transport sector alone!
A definite negative impact on business travel
The decline in passenger movements on the transatlantic route is likely to be adversely affected by a combination of factors:
– An erratic policy on entry requirements for the United StatesThis includes citizens of countries benefiting from the Visa Waiver programme.
– A trade warIf it continues, it will hamper business flows with the planned fall in trade.
– A global economic slowdownwith risks of recession in the United States, Europe and the major Asian trading powers. In its latest forecasts, dated 3 April 2025, Oxford Economics had simulated the Liberation Day" pricing proposals to quantify the economic impact. This simulation showed US GDP growth falling from 2% to 1.4 %. and inflation flirting with 4% compared with 3.1 % in the initial scenario. But the fall in stock markets around the world since 2 April, following the announcement of the new tariffs, should have a negative impact on these forecasts.
– Inflation and cuts in federal budgets will weigh on the purchasing power of American households, who are likely to travel less.
These are all destabilising factors for a transatlantic business market. which had resumed since 2023. Of course, the airlines continue to say that they are not seeing any adverse effects for the time being on bookings. An act of bravado or a need to ward off bad luck?
