No surge in air capacity as traffic recovers, according to OAG

If the traffic lights don't turn green, they at least turn amber, if not red. pale orange according to OAG. The British consultancy, which specialises in analysing airline schedules and capacity, analyses the growth in seat volumes in the various traffic segments around the world on a week-by-week basis. According to OAG, the number of seats offered worldwide should reach 1.187 billion in the first quarter of 2022. This is a strong growth compared with the first quarter of 2021 where only 711 million seats were on sale. But this is still a far cry from the first quarter of 2019, when the total volume of seats reached 1.354 billion.

In fact, OAG has observed a certain caution on the part of airlines, particularly internationally. Many markets are still missing in action, both geographically, such as Asia in general, and by sector. This is still the case for business travel.

Over the past year, hauliers have been plagued by the announcements made by various governments about the imminent opening up of this or that country. These announcements have often had difficulty in materialising, or have subsequently been cut back again. OAG therefore believes that companies are waiting to be earlier in the winter season. Many carriers have announced that they will be reopening routes in January or even February 2022.

Caution is still the order of the day

However, OAG notes that capacity by region has remained virtually unchanged for several weeks, a situation that is likely to continue into the first quarter of 2022.

The global capacity of airlines thus remains 13 % below 2019 levels for Q1 2022. However, it is 67 % higher than in 2021. OAG reports that a further six million seats have been withdrawn from the market until the end of 2021, as airlines believe supply matches demand. Overall, 2021 is expected to end with a total full-year seat capacity of 3.7 billion, compared with 3.2 billion in 2020 and 5.7 billion in 2019.

For the week of 18 October, almost all markets were up on the week of 11 October. The biggest increase (+7.2%) was seen in South-East Asia, but the region is starting from a historically low volume. Its supply remains almost 70% lower than in 2020. Capacity in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe fell by 3.2% and 5.2% respectively compared with the week of 11 October. We are on a the more classic phenomenon of adjustment with the end of many seasonal flights operated during the summer.

The countries with the largest capacities are unsurprisingly the United States, China and India, all three of which have a high level of domestic activity. Spain ranks fourth, however, due to the large number of holiday flights from all over Europe. France ranks 14th with 1.48 million seats, an increase of 2.6% week-on-week.

Seat capacity between 20 January 2020 and 18 October 2021 (Source: OAG)

Growth in the number of seats for a selection of European countries (in millions - Source: OAG)