As the year 2024 draws to a close, the French Transport Regulation Authority (ART) has just published its study of the French rail transport market, based on figures for 2023. In its 8e annual review, the Autorité confirms first of all the steady rise in the number of rail passengers since the end of CovidThis represents growth of 6% compared with 2022. Since 2019, the increase has even amounted to 21% for TERs and 6% for TGVs despite a reduction in high-speed rail services of almost 3% due to industrial action and the withdrawal from service of around 40 trains. The TGV occupancy rate rose again to 76% in 2023.
For TER trains, ridership rose in 2023 in all regions, particularly by more than 10% in Brittany, Pays de la Loire and Occitanie. These regions recorded an increase in the number of subscribers and train occupancy, with this rate jumping by 5 points in Occitanie and Normandie. " Ridership on Transilien-RER services in the Île-de-France region, on the other hand, has fallen by 6 % since 2019, in parallel with the sharp fall in capacity (-7 %) over the same period." notes the ART report. Overall, for passenger transport in France, the modal share of rail reached 10.4% last year, compared with 8% on average across Europe. While we are still a long way from SNCF's objective of doubling the modal share of rail by 2030it has grown stronger by 0.6 points between 2022 and 2023 and by 1.2 points from 2019.
The price of the low-cost offer has risen even more
According to the ART, fares continued to rise in 2023, with a greater increase for low-cost services such as Ouigo (+10%) than for traditional high-speed services (+6%). However, the Authority notes that " since 2019, the average price increase (+5 %) remains lower than overall inflation (+15 %)" . This rise in fares and the increase in train capacity has enabled the companies, led by SNCF, to increase their revenues, even though they have had to cope with higher toll and energy costs. Revenues from TER services have also risen thanks to the increase in ridership, offset here too by a rise in operating costs.
The good points of opening up to competition
Although the market is still dominated by SNCF Voyageurs, the opening up to competition has allowed the arrival on the network of new operators with Renfe Viajeros and Trenitalia France. This led to an increase in seat capacity of 15% on the competing routes, and more particularly on the Paris-Lyon route. While passenger numbers rose by 10% on this route, fares remained unchanged. lower than 10% compared with those before the introduction of competition.
On the other hand, change is proceeding at a slow pace for the TER networks. Only 7 contracted service lots have been awarded under the new competitive tendering rules, out of a total of almost fifty that will be involved by 2033 at the latest. However, the new contracts for the first batches are based on a reduction in costs and an increase in service quality (regularity of trains, increase in the number of trains per day, improved comfort on board, etc.).
Sharp deterioration in the quality of rail services
After the rise in fares, regularity and punctuality are the second worst aspects of rail passenger transport, according to ART. For TER trains, these rates fell in 10 out of 11 regions, particularly in Nouvelle-Aquitaine. For conventional trains, the performance rate has fallen to 78%, compared with 81% in 2022. The negative factors have been compounded by a fall in the number of trains scheduled to run (TGV trains having been reduced by 15% compared with 2019), an increase in last-minute cancellations (strikes, climatic or technical contingencies, etc.), a reduction in punctuality, particularly at peak times, and so on. As a small consolation for operators, the Authority notes that " the rate of passengers compensated for their delays has [remained] stable on average" .
