The prospect of a future peace agreement between Iran and the United States through the signing of a protocol for discussions scheduled for the weekend in Switzerland appears to pave the way for a cessation of hostilities in the Gulf and allow the opening of the famous Strait of Hormuz.
That was all it took to send oil prices plummeting. On the market, a barrel of Brent crude was trading at just over $83 at midday on 15 June. This represents a fall of nearly 51% compared with Friday. Compared to the peak on 4 May 2026 – when Brent reached $114 a barrel – the fall in prices has already reached 37%. The price of a barrel of Brent crude remains, however, 38% higher than its price on 1 January 2026, when it stood at just over 60$.
If the oil price slump is confirmed with the stabilisation of the situation in the Middle East and the reopening of the strait, on the other hand, it is unlikely to have a positive impact on air ticket prices in the short term.
In fact, while airlines are generally very agile at increasing ticket prices, they are infinitely less so in the opposite direction. Firstly, because they find themselves honouring advance purchase contracts for kerosene (known as 'hedging'). This has tended to be on the higher end of the range in recent months.
Fall in airfares in the third quarter?
Furthermore, demand for air travel remains strong despite the crisis. However, it is facing a sharp decline in seat capacity among many legacy carriers. Consultancy firm OAG notes that Air France’s seat capacity is down by 5.71% in May 2026 compared to May 2025; by 7.81% for Lufthansa; and by 11% for British Airways.
The number of seats at Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport has therefore fallen by 3.31% and at Singapore Airport by 11% in May 2026 compared with 2025. With delays in the delivery of new aircraft, supply remains tight relative to demand.
To summarise, a widespread price drop will not be felt in the third quarter of 2026, assuming everything goes smoothly between Iran and the United States. It is likely that the long-haul Europe-Asia segment could be the first to benefit. Passengers should indeed benefit from the ramp-up of Gulf carriers, whose political horizon appears to be clearing up. This should ultimately weigh on airfares with the increase in capacity from Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, and others.
